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Old 11-08-2009, 04:51 AM   #1
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NS: Hurricane Ida entering Gulf of Mexico

You guys know I don't post this stuff on the main board unless something is worth posting. To put it lightly this is a pretty complex scenario setting up with a non-tropical low from the Bay of Campeche, a cold front and Hurricane Ida (which is likely to be becoming extra-tropical) converging over the area at relatively the same time.

The bottom line is that regardless of if Tropical Storm warnings are issued or not (Ida is likely to weaken in the central Gulf with the cooler water temps and shear from the aforementioned systems) the city and the surrounding areas are very likely to see Tropical Storm like conditions, with the further west you are the better you make out (with winds and high tides that is).

Everyone, including people to the west like the Baton Rouge area are going to see anywhere from 3-5 inches of rain starting late tonight and running through Tuesday afternoon. In addition to that, coastal flooding will be a big concern along with strong enough winds to cause downed trees and power outages. Everyone from the city eastward is probably going to see sustained tropical storm force winds Monday evening and Monday night regardless as to whether the system is tropical or not.

Of course the timing and eventual track can still change, and likely will, with the complexity of the situation. I just thought in light of the game today and the focus being on it, some people might miss the fact that tomorrow is going to probably bring some ugly weather this way.

I'll try to keep everyone updated, but as some of you know I can't always do it. GO SAINTS!!!





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Old 11-08-2009, 04:56 AM   #2
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Old 11-08-2009, 04:57 AM   #3
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it appears to be on a recurve pattern already. Nawlins will get rain, possibly some tornadoes, but no direct hit from this.
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Old 11-08-2009, 04:57 AM   #4
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Old 11-08-2009, 05:05 AM   #5
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Yes and yes!
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Old 11-08-2009, 05:05 AM   #6
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Ty for update did not even know we had one out there...
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Old 11-08-2009, 05:06 AM   #7
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it appears to be on a recurve pattern already. Nawlins will get rain, possibly some tornadoes, but no direct hit from this.
Uh no. Movement is still very northwest. Timing is the key but trends lately have been closer to Louisiana before recurve. Regardless, it's not where it hits.
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Old 11-08-2009, 05:07 AM   #8
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Ty for update did not even know we had one out there...
No problem, this I know is sneaking up on a lot of people.....especially on gameday.
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Old 11-08-2009, 05:22 AM   #9
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Will any of the rain from this get up to the Monroe area? We really DON"T need it.
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Old 11-08-2009, 05:25 AM   #10
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Will any of the rain from this get up to the Monroe area? We really DON"T need it.
Most of it should stay south and east of you guys, but you will get some rain. Maybe a half inch or so.
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Old 11-08-2009, 05:29 AM   #11
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I'm kind of confused. On the first graph, it shows thu between mon and tue. Is that a mistake or is the thing supposed to hit land between tuesday and wednesday and go BACK INTO the gulf? I've been quite busy so this is the first I've heard of a TS in the gulf.
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Old 11-08-2009, 05:32 AM   #12
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Might be a half inch too much for the river up here.
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Old 11-08-2009, 05:33 AM   #13
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I'm kind of confused. On the first graph, it shows thu between mon and tue. Is that a mistake or is the thing supposed to hit land between tuesday and wednesday and go BACK INTO the gulf? I've been quite busy so this is the first I've heard of a TS in the gulf.
It's supposed to be 12PM Monday.

EDIT: OK, it is confusing, but note the Thursday is pointing to the point west of Tampa.
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Old 11-08-2009, 05:35 AM   #14
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Might be a half inch too much for the river up here.
I hear ya man, they are watching it closely. It's already in major flood and it's going to go up another foot or so.
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Old 11-08-2009, 07:08 AM   #15
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so, what is this going to be around landfall? i hear its supposed to be torn up somewhat in the gulf. we talking a near hurricane at landfall or alot weaker?
also, gulf shores area in trouble here?
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Old 11-08-2009, 07:21 AM   #16
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That cold front is going to take it out like Grant and Smith on Jake Delhomme....
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Old 11-08-2009, 07:31 AM   #17
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That cold front is going to take it out like Grant and Smith on Jake Delhomme....
hop eyour right! weatherunderground still shows its right under hurricane status as it hits land
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Old 11-08-2009, 07:38 AM   #18
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Old 11-08-2009, 08:00 AM   #19
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hop eyour right! weatherunderground still shows its right under hurricane status as it hits land
It may take it out for us, but if you live on the "Red Neck Riviera", it may be different for ya'll.....keeping fingers crossed...
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Old 11-08-2009, 08:17 AM   #20
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Monday 12 Noon, expected position is 245 miles south of New Orleans with 90 mph winds
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Old 11-08-2009, 08:42 AM   #21
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Prime example of what Global warming can provide. The bad thing is how quick these storms can pop up and bit you in the ***.
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Old 11-08-2009, 08:49 AM   #22
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Prime example of what Global warming can provide. The bad thing is how quick these storms can pop up and bit you in the ***.
Global warming would be represented in a broad level many-year trend, not in any specific instance. You're setting yourself up for an ugly debate if you try to ascribe a single storm in a down tropical season during what is predicted to be a colder-then-normal winter to "global warming".
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Old 11-08-2009, 08:51 AM   #23
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Thanks so much for the update--I'm supposed to be heading off to school on Monday, but I just might stay home and wait till Tuesday to start.
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Old 11-08-2009, 08:52 AM   #24
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Global warming would be represented in a broad level many-year trend, not in any specific instance. You're setting yourself up for an ugly debate if you try to ascribe a single storm in a down tropical season during what is predicted to be a colder-then-normal winter to "global warming".
Okay then I refuse to debate then in any specific instance.
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Old 11-08-2009, 08:59 AM   #25
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Okay then I refuse to debate then in any specific instance.
Dude, stop trying to derail the thread. WeatherNLU posted as an alert and a favor to all of us--don't make him regret it. I'm all for a good global warming debate in the right context, but this thread is not that context.
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