You guys know I don't post this stuff on the main board unless something is worth posting. To put it lightly this is a pretty complex scenario setting up with a non-tropical low from the Bay of Campeche, a cold front and Hurricane Ida (which is likely to be becoming extra-tropical) converging over the area at relatively the same time.
The bottom line is that regardless of if Tropical Storm warnings are issued or not (Ida is likely to weaken in the central Gulf with the cooler water temps and shear from the aforementioned systems) the city and the surrounding areas are very likely to see Tropical Storm like conditions, with the further west you are the better you make out (with winds and high tides that is).
Everyone, including people to the west like the Baton Rouge area are going to see anywhere from 3-5 inches of rain starting late tonight and running through Tuesday afternoon. In addition to that, coastal flooding will be a big concern along with strong enough winds to cause downed trees and power outages. Everyone from the city eastward is probably going to see sustained tropical storm force winds Monday evening and Monday night regardless as to whether the system is tropical or not.
Of course the timing and eventual track can still change, and likely will, with the complexity of the situation. I just thought in light of the game today and the focus being on it, some people might miss the fact that tomorrow is going to probably bring some ugly weather this way.
I'll try to keep everyone updated, but as some of you know I can't always do it. GO SAINTS!!!
it appears to be on a recurve pattern already. Nawlins will get rain, possibly some tornadoes, but no direct hit from this.
Uh no. Movement is still very northwest. Timing is the key but trends lately have been closer to Louisiana before recurve. Regardless, it's not where it hits.
I'm kind of confused. On the first graph, it shows thu between mon and tue. Is that a mistake or is the thing supposed to hit land between tuesday and wednesday and go BACK INTO the gulf? I've been quite busy so this is the first I've heard of a TS in the gulf.
I'm kind of confused. On the first graph, it shows thu between mon and tue. Is that a mistake or is the thing supposed to hit land between tuesday and wednesday and go BACK INTO the gulf? I've been quite busy so this is the first I've heard of a TS in the gulf.
It's supposed to be 12PM Monday.
EDIT: OK, it is confusing, but note the Thursday is pointing to the point west of Tampa.
so, what is this going to be around landfall? i hear its supposed to be torn up somewhat in the gulf. we talking a near hurricane at landfall or alot weaker?
also, gulf shores area in trouble here?
Thanks WeatherNLU! SR always has great hurricane coverage.
__________________
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At least we can all agree that we hate the cowboys!
Prime example of what Global warming can provide. The bad thing is how quick these storms can pop up and bit you in the ***.
Global warming would be represented in a broad level many-year trend, not in any specific instance. You're setting yourself up for an ugly debate if you try to ascribe a single storm in a down tropical season during what is predicted to be a colder-then-normal winter to "global warming".
Global warming would be represented in a broad level many-year trend, not in any specific instance. You're setting yourself up for an ugly debate if you try to ascribe a single storm in a down tropical season during what is predicted to be a colder-then-normal winter to "global warming".
Okay then I refuse to debate then in any specific instance.
Okay then I refuse to debate then in any specific instance.
Dude, stop trying to derail the thread. WeatherNLU posted as an alert and a favor to all of us--don't make him regret it. I'm all for a good global warming debate in the right context, but this thread is not that context.
Linear Mode
